Do we want to lose our cows to concrete?
In a piece of good news, revised population projections published by the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) show that Hart will have fewer households in 2031 than were assumed in the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA). This should have the effect of reducing the housing requirement being imposed on Hart District as part of the Local Plan. This might reduce the remaining 2,900 houses left to grant permission for and make it more likely we can meet all of the remaining need from brownfield sites.
| Local Authority | 2011 households | SHMA start point for 2031 using 2011-based population projection | New projection for 2031 using 2012-based population projection | Change between 2011-based and 2012-based projections | SHMA end-point for 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart | 35757 | 42220 | 40618 | -1602 | 43291 |
| Rushmoor | 36559 | 40830 | 42362 | 1532 | 46381 |
| Surrey Heath | 33632 | 38170 | 38321 | 151 | 40689 |
| Total | 105948 | 121220 | 121301 | 81 | 130361 |
However in other news, the same new figures for Rushmoor and Surrey Heath show higher projections for households up to 2031 than were assumed in the SHMA. This might increase the housing requirement for Surrey Heath and Rushmoor and they may ask that Hart builds those houses for them.
What is clear is that the SHMA then makes several dubious adjustments to the baseline DCLG projections that add a further 9,000 or so houses to the total for the housing market area that need to be challenged.
The DCLG figures can be found here and here. The SHMA can be found here.
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