Category Archives: Brownfield Sites

Brownfield sites in Hart District, Hampshire, England available for the Hart Local Plan

Hart Council planners “lose” 1,400 homes from brownfield sites

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Let's just make up the brownfield numbers

Let’s just make up the brownfield numbers

Back in October 2014, Hart District Council said we had capacity for around 750 new dwellings on brownfield sites.  Since then, a number of new sites were identified through the Stonegate Report and other sites such as Bramshill and Fleet police station came up.  This led the Council to say as recently as October 1, that there was capacity for 1,800 homes on brownfield sites.

However, Hart Council have now published a draft housing options paper on their website that says brownfield capacity is now only 400 units [Update: a later version of the same document now states brownfield capacity as 450 units, although this is lower than the official SHLAA estimates for the same sites].  It seems that over the past six weeks, it seems the planners have “lost” 1,400 houses.

As far as we know very few, if any, of the initial 750 units have been given planning permission since October last year.  We have made a FOI request to get to the bottom of it.

It remains a mystery where they have gone to, but one can only assume that there is a cabal of concrete campaigners in Hart who are determined to build on our beautiful countryside at the same time as they protect vacant and derelict office blocks In Hook, Fleet and all across the district. Please do get involved with this consultation and respond to it using our guide on our dedicated page about this consultation here.

 

Housing targets systematically over-stating housing need

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Is this what we want Hart to turn into?

Is this what we want our countryside to turn into?

A review of a sample of Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs) across the south of England has indicated that on average, local planning authorities are being asked to plan for 41.9% more houses than the needs identified by DCLG population projections. The consequence of this is it is likely that far more green field land is being allocated for housing than is necessary to meet our housing need.

Regular readers will know that for some time we have been concerned about the overall level of housing Hart District is being asked to deliver.  To this end,  we have been analysing our Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA), and together with Winchfield Action Group (WAG), we have commissioned an independent look at Hart’s SHMA.

However, we have also been inspired by the work of Alan Wenban-Smith criticising the Vale of the White Horse SHMA. This has led us to take a look at a number of SHMAs around the area, comparing the starting point of the official Government population and household forecasts to the end point of the recommended housing need after taking into account a number of additional elements like additional inward migration to the area, affordable housing, changes in average household size and jobs forecasts.

The findings are quite alarming and lead to a number of conclusions, some of which should be relevant for national planning policy.

We have looked at 6 SHMAs covering large areas of Hampshire, Berkshire, Surrey and Oxfordshire.  Overall the total “starting point need” for these areas is 272,200 houses, and the end point “need” is 386,286 houses, or an uplift of 41.9%.  This is shown in the table below:

 

SHMA AreaLoca Authorites coveredAuthorStarting year yearEnd point yearStarting point "need"Ending point "Need"% Uplift over starting pointNotes
HRSHHart, Rushmoor Surrey HeathWessex Economics20112031158002360049.4Starting point is 2011 DCLG and SNPP projections
South HampshirePortsmouth, Fareham, Gosport, Chichester, Bognor Regis, Southampton (West Centre), Southampton (East), Winchester, Eastleigh, Lymington, Totton, HavantGL Hearn201120368710513161151.1Starting point is 2011 DCLG and SNPP projections
East HampshireEast HampshireNathaniel Lichfield & Partners201120288105960518.5Start point 2010 SNPP
WaverleyWaverleyGL Hearn201120317670940022.6Start point 2011 SNPP and CLG projections
BerkshireBracknell Forest, Reading, West Berks, Wokingham, Slough, South Bucks, RBWMGL Hearn201320369577211201017.02012-based SNPP
OxfordshireCherwell, Oxford, South Oxon, Vale of White Horse, West OxonGL Hearn201120315774810006073.32011-based projections
Total27220038628641.9

 

The DCLG population and household forecasts “are statistically robust and are based on nationally consistent assumptions“, so the net effect of adjustments across all SHMAs should be close to zero.  If this sample is indicative of what is going on across the country, then councils will be planning for far more houses than we need and as a consequence will be allocating for development far more green field land than is necessary to meet our housing requirements, with disastrous consequences for our countryside. Current housing delivery is around 150K per annum, and the DCLG figures suggest an underlying need of 220K per annum. If my analysis of this sample is indicative of what is going on across the whole country, councils will end up planning for about 312K houses which would be a big waste of national resources.

We would like to see this analysis repeated on a national basis.  However, an FOI request to the DCLG has not been successful because they don’t collate this data at a national level.  For a Government that wants to focus on brownfield development, this looks to us to be a reckless omission.

The SHMAs on which this analysis is based are:

Hart, Rushmoor and Surrey Heath, here.

South Hampshire, including Portsmouth, Fareham, Gosport, Southampton, Eastleigh and Havant, here.

East Hampshire, here.

Waverley, here.

Berkshire, here.

Oxfordshire, here.

 

 

Community Campaign Hart Council Chairman to discuss brownfield development with Ranil

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Hart District Council Offices

Hart District Council Offices

Concrete Community Campaign Hart (CCH) member and chairman of Hart District Council is to meet with our Local MP Ranil Jayawardena to challenge any misunderstandings there might be about the brownfield capacity of Hart District.

CCH are clearly alarmed at Ranil’s intervention on planning matters, especially as Ranil said he was against large-scale, top-down developments generally and he believed (as We Heart Hart believe), that our remaining housing allocation can be met from brownfield sites alone.

CCH have said they are opposed to redeveloping the derelict sites on Fleet Road in Fleet, Hampshire, and instead prefer to build a new town in Winchfield.

The chairman’s statement on this matter is included in the draft minutes of last week’s meeting and reproduced below:

Secondly, I have become aware of the disquiet felt by many members from all political groups about the Planning pronouncements from our MP Ranil Jayawardena. In particular, the assertion that Hart has enough Brownfield sites to build all its housing needs without the need to disturb any significant Greenfield sites outside current settlement boundaries. This is in direct contradiction to the advice we as a council have been given by officers, consultants and members on the Local Plan Steering Group.

In my role as Chairman I have had the pleasure of talking to Ranil on this issue whilst undertaking other civic duties. I therefore took the opportunity to invite him to a private meeting with this Council to explore why such disparate views have come about. His current position is that he would welcome such a meeting. My invitation was made to ensure no misunderstandings remain unchallenged between us as having a fully engaged, briefed and passionate advocate for Hart in Westminster is important for this Council.

I will be working with the Council Leader and Rail’s [sic] office to agree a date that will fit in with his Parliamentary responsibilities. It is therefore likely that the timing of such a meeting will not be a midweek evening so I apologise to working members in advance.

We do hope that Ranil maintains his position and points out to Hart Council members some of our work on brownfield capacity and Ranil also further explains his policy of pushing local councils to be more active.

Separately, the Council Leader expressed some sympathy with the view we should build on brownfield sites alone and even conceded it might be theoretically possible, but fell short of making a commitment to do so. Our questions and the Leader’s answers below:

Question: Do you agree with our local MP who says: “I believe unused and redundant commercial buildings should be brought forward for regeneration before any more greenfield sites are allocated anywhere in NE Hampshire. That includes Grove Farm, Hop Garden, Winchfield, the Urnfield…I’m against these developments – indeed, this sort of large-scale top-down volume-led development generally – as I do not believe they are necessary to deliver the housing we need in our area. Looking at Hart District specifically for a moment, as the largest part of the constituency, I believe that the local housing demand can be met on brownfield sites”?

Response: Putting to one side the matter that this is a quotation out of context, Mr. Jayawardena makes three points in this opinion statement. Firstly he says that brownfield should be used before greenfield; as a statement of principle I wholly agree, and always have. However, we are obliged to maintain a five year land supply. As fast as we approve fresh applications, previous consents are being built out; this is a moving target. Unless we can deliver brownfield site planning consents at the rate of that of our ongoing annual housing requirement we cannot deal with this sequentially. Given that we do not have deliverable and developable brownfield sites sufficient for our own Objectively Assessed Housing Needs (OAHN), we are obliged to allocate some sites other than brownfield to achieve the numbers required. Second, he is opposed to a number of specific sites, as am I. We are however compelled to allocate sites which we would prefer not in order to fulfil our OAHN. He states that he believes the OAHN can be met from brownfield sites; this is probably theoretically true, if we compel the use of unavailable sites including those in current active employment use. That is not available to us.

Question: What criteria would you use and how long would a brownfield site need to be vacant, with no sign of redevelopment before the council would consider using Compulsory Purchase Orders (CPOs) to ensure that we can build modern apartments for young professionals who can’t otherwise buy a home in our area?

Response: CPO is not a cheap option. We would be obliged to pay market price for such land, plus the costs of acquisition, and this for a site where the owner has not perceived an opportunity to develop at a profit. It is simply unrealistic that Hart DC could undertake CPO on the scale necessary, and in the timeframes necessary, to persuade an Inspector that such a plan would be deliverable. The Council could not afford to do it. Further, to produce tracts of apartments for young professionals would result in fundamentally unbalanced communities. We need communities which provide for all our residents, including families and older people. Young professional ghettoes are not good planning. In the event that a site would become appropriate for CPO, the site would be considered on its individual merits. You should be aware, however, that the seizure of the assets of others even paying full value is not something this council has seen as desirable, which is why it was not considered as an appropriate means of site assembly should a new settlement proceed.

Question: How many sites would meet those criteria and how many dwellings might they yield?

Response: A site would be considered on its merits at the time.

Government to extend “planning in principle” rights to green fields

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Example of Urban Sprawl

Example of Urban Sprawl

The Government appears to be trying to extend the recently announced “planning in principle” rights to green field developments. This could mean tens of thousands of new homes in green field areas will be forced upon communities that do not want them.

We have previously applauded the Government for introducing this right to brownfield sites. Just three weeks ago David Cameron, the Prime Minister, said that the new “planning in principle” changes would apply to brownfield sites like former car parks and industrial areas. However Government documents said the new power will apply to “housing identified in local plans and neighbourhood plans” which include greenfield areas.

One document states: “The Government proposes to legislate to enable the Secretary of State to grant ‘permission in principle’ via a development order to land that is allocated for development in locally produced plans and registers.”

This development may have important implications for the Hart District parishes (e.g. Winchfield, Odiham, Fleet) that are in the process of creating their Neighbourhood Plans and of course for the Hart Local Plan.  Surely, this will mean that will be more reluctant to identify potential sites for development because Hart Council Planners will no longer have the powers to block inappropriate schemes nor to insist that the design, density, size and location of homes is in keeping with local areas.

This proposal significantly undermines local democracy and should be opposed.

 

Fog descends on the Hart Local Plan

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Fog descends on Hart Local Plan

Fog descends on Hart Local Plan

A number of new developments are emerging on the Hart Local Plan, that show that the overall process is confused and murky.

First, we understand that a new Housing Options paper is being produced that will go to a special meeting of Hart Council Cabinet on 18 November.  This paper will then be offered for consultation, although the consultation period is not clear.  Usually, six weeks are allowed for consultation, but there is some suggestion that this period will be reduced.

Second, it has emerged that the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) is being revisited to take account of changes in the population and household forecasts.  We hope that this work will also take the opportunity to take a fresh look at the outlandish jobs forecasts in the current version of the SHMA.  We believe that this work should result in an overall reduction in the housing allocation for Hart and the rest of the housing market area that includes Surrey Heath and Rushmoor.  This would be good news and should remove the threat of Surrey Heath and Rushmoor asking Hart to build 3,000 houses for them.  It is understood that this work will be completed early in the New Year.

Third, Hart District Council is embarking upon a process to identify additional brownfield sites across the district by consulting with town and parish councils.  It is unclear how long this process will take, but it is fairly clear it will not be complete by the time the Housing Options paper is due to be completed.  The council has still not committed to creating a proper register of brownfield sites across the district.

Finally, Rushmoor are still working on the results of the consultation they ran over the summer and are planning to publish a revised Local Plan for consultation early in the New Year, presumably taking account of the revised SHMA.

Pulling all of this together, it appears we are going to be consulted again on Housing Options which is to be welcomed, but the number of houses we need to accommodate will not take account of the latest thinking in the revised SHMA, nor Rushmoor’s revised plan nor will it take account of the total brownfield capacity in the district.  It also seems odd that the council is seeking to force through a new consultation on a compressed timescale in the run up to Christmas, which is a time most residents will be focused on other things.  All in all, a very murky process.

Ranil emphasises the need for infrastructure alongside housing

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Ranil Jayawardena at a brownfield site

Ranil Jayawardena at a brownfield site in Hampshire

Local MP, Ranil Jayawardena has published a new article re-stating his preference for brownfield regeneration and emphasising the need for proper infrastructure to be delivered alongside housing and calling on local councils to take a more active approach.

This is the key passage from his article:

This is an important point. It is clear to me that infrastructure improvements are an absolute necessity for any development – and Government has a role in this part of the equation.

Whether brownfield or greenfield, infrastructure is critical to ensure that these developments not only provides homes for our friends and children, but are taken as opportunities to improve the way of life for existing residents. Whether brownfield or greenfield, development should not come before infrastructure.

I welcome the Hampshire Combined Authority proposal, specifically a ten-year Transport Investment Fund to be used to significantly improve our roads and public transport. This is a good start, but to plan our future, we must consider the past. We should be thinking about the existing infrastructure deficit also and how this can now be mitigated, so that existing residents end up with a better deal.

It is only right that infrastructure is delivered alongside any new development, rather than leaving communities hoping for improvements in the future, when our roads are already jammed and our trains are already crammed.

Ranil also calls on Local Authorities to take a more active role in developing their areas, by actively considering Compulsory Purchase Orders and using development profits to fund additional infrastructure:

There is another way to fund infrastructure, of course. If regeneration is led by local government, through its ownership of the land (whether by private treaty or CPO), the profit that local government makes from the redevelopment can be invested in infrastructure or for the benefit of taxpayers. This is particularly important with brownfield sites, since sites may not be viable – after taking into account a developer’s profit – if they are also required to pay CIL/s106 at the normal level and it would not be good to see large-scale brownfield regeneration without any infrastructure improvements.

Through this vision of active local government, brownfield regeneration genuinely benefits local people, rather than shareholders of a developer, through improved infrastructure and lower Council Tax.

I should probably say that I accept, often, brownfield sites are not in common ownership and, even if they are, the landowner doesn’t wish to develop them. To my mind, however, that is not a reason for brownfield to be put in the ‘too difficult’ pile. Rather, I believe local government has a role to outline how it wishes to comprehensively improve the existing built environment, through purchasing and redeveloping land if not already in its ownership

We wholeheartedly welcome Ranil’s new intervention and we can only hope that Hart District Council are listening. We urge you to sign Ranil’s petition using the button below.

 

Sign Ranil's Petition

 

 

Community Campaign in bitter clash with We Heart Hart

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Community Groups in bitter clash over homes Fleet News and Mail 20151028

Community Groups in bitter clash over homes in Hart District, Hampshire

Fleet News and Mail has covered our story where we challenged Community Campaign Hart’s (CCH) plan to decimate the heart of Hart.

Hart District Council takes aim at the Heart of Hart

Community Campaign takes aim at the Heart of Hart

To remind readers, we took CCH to task over their assertions that there was no sustainable alternative to building a new town at Winchfield and their claims about infrastructure and traffic.  In particular, we dispute CCH’s claim that there isn’t enough brownfield capacity, an area where we are backed up by the views of our Local MP, Ranil Jayawardena.

We are delighted that Fleet News and Mail has brought these arguments to a wider audience.  Let’s see how the general public react to the forthcoming Housing Options paper.

A large image of the Fleet News and Mail article can be found here.

This story was also covered in Get Hampshire on November 3 2015: Community Groups in bitter clash over Winchfield homes plan

Community Campaign Hart takes aim at the Heart of Hart

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Hart District Council takes aim at the Heart of Hart

Community Campaign Hart takes aim at the Heart of Hart

Community Campaign Hart (CCH) have published a new newsletter on their website that calls for a new settlement to destroy the Heart of Hart in Winchfield.

In their article they make criticism of We Heart Hart and the good residents of Winchfield, and come to the conclusion that the only viable option for delivering the housing we need is a new settlement of 3,000-5,000 houses in Winchfield.  In their article they make a number of assertions that we believe are false, and will now seek to correct them, point by point.  But first, it is important that we start with the areas where we agree with CCH.

Points of Agreement

CCH say:

Until Hart have an LDP which meets the approval of a Government-appointed inspector, developers are in effect able to build on almost any greenfield site they choose

We broadly agree with this, although as in the case of Hop Garden Road in Hook, sometimes common sense can prevail especially now that Hart has more than 5 years of land supply.  However, if CCH are so concerned about the lack of a Local Plan, they should work more closely with We Heart Hart and others to ensure that Hart Council takes proper steps to improve the management of the Local Plan project that has slipped its timescale by two years within two years.  They would do better to use their time at council meetings to ask questions about the local plan rather than seek to stifle difficult questions.

Points of Difference

1. CCH say:

There just isn’t enough brownfield land available to accommodate that number of new homes, unless we are going to build high-rise tenement blocks along the length of Fleet Road.

This is simply not true on a number of levels.  First, the council hasn’t even created a proper register of brownfield sites so it hasn’t properly assessed capacity.  Second, our own work has shown there’s capacity for between 2,438 and 3,688 units, compared to the remaining unsatisfied “need” of 2,900 given at the last cabinet.

Derelict Offices in Fleet, Hampshire

Derelict Offices on Fleet Road in Fleet, Hampshire

Third, parts of Fleet Road are a disgrace to the district and should be redeveloped, not with tenements, but with mid-rise (say 3-4 storey) high quality apartments to help young people get on the housing ladder.  Finally, there is brownfield capacity all over the district including Ancell’s Farm, Bartley Wood, Pyestock, Bramshill and Guillemont Park.  They really should get out more and see all of the vacant offices around the district.

2. CCH say:

With a mainline railway station far closer to it than to any other new development in Fleet; with the option to integrate new roads onto the A30 and through to the M3; together with sufficient scale to fund three new primary schools and a new secondary school, Winchfield strikes many as being the best compromise

This is economic incompetence of the highest order.  The council’s own assessment of infrastructure needs points to costs of over £300m for a new town including the schools, but not including improvements to healthcare.  The ballpark estimate for developer contributions made by a senior Hart Councillor is around £40m.  There’s already a £78m infrastructure funding deficit in the district and £1.9bn across Hampshire.  Not only would a new town at Winchfield destroy green fields, it would destroy ancient hedgerows and put at risk SSSI’s and SINCs, but it would no doubt further increase congestion in Fleet and Church Crookham.

3, CCH say:

Consequently they have resorted to social media and other marketing techniques to promote the ‘wehearthart’ message.

However, their messaging is incomplete. They point to the council wishing to build a new town at Winchfield and seek to demonize anyone who may have reached the conclusion, however reluctantly, that a new town at Winchfield is the least worst solution out of an abhorrent set of options. They do not explain what the alternatives are, as the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) mandates that this level of housing must go somewhere within Hart’s borders

We do not see what is wrong with communicating with the public using social media on the serious issue of the Local Plan, particularly when the council gets its own facts wrong.  However, We Heart Hart has explained what the alternatives are at some length, and the CCH Chairman of the council sought to have questions that we raised to indicate a different path censored at council meetings.  The alternatives are:

a) Reduce the alleged housing need by challenging the SHMA, particularly taking into account the latest DCLG population forecasts that indicate a lower population in 2031 than assumed in the SHMA and the reducing ridiculous jobs forecasts.  CCH would do well to engage with this debate instead of seeking to censor it.

b) Explore the options for reducing the assessed housing need by exploring so called “policy on” options to protect the environment and ecology.  Note that Winchfield is beautiful countryside in its own right, but is also within the 5km zone of influence of the Thames Valley Heath SPA.

c) Properly get to grips with brownfield options by establishing a brownfield register, actively encouraging landlords to redevelop their derelict sites and exploring the use of Compulsory Purchase Orders on sites that have sat vacant for years with no apparent signs of progress (e.g. Hartland Park aka Pyestock).

Hartland Park (Pyestock) near Fleet, Hart District, Hampshire, warehouse development not started

Brownfield site: Hartland Park (Pyestock) near Fleet, Hart District, Hampshire, warehouse development not started

CCH need to wake up, smell the coffee, listen to Ranil Jaywardena and use their talents to establish a different vision to protect the countryside they profess to love rather than coming out with incomplete, inaccurate nonsense.  Be careful who you vote for in next year’s local elections.

This story now covered in the local press, see here.

Questions for Hart Council meeting on 29 October 2015

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Hart District Council Offices

Hart District Council Offices in Fleet, Hampshire

Hart District Council meets again on 29 October at 7pm.  We have been busy preparing some questions for them on brownfield capacity; the impact of the new Government announcements about brownfield sites; Ranil’s statement about protecting our green fields; when they might use Compulsory Purchase Orders to acquire vacant sites; the inaccurate assumptions in the SHMA and the slippage in the timetable for the Hart Local Plan.

The questions can be downloaded from the button, and are re-produced below:

Questions to Hart Council on 29 October 2015
Questions to Hart Council on 29 October 2015
Download Now!238 Downloads

To Daryl Phillips

  1. Please provide an analysis, including SHLAA ref, site name and description, site area in hectares, and expected yield, of the sites that have been used to build up the estimate provided at cabinet on 1 October 2015, when you asserted that the ‘guesstimated’ capacity for brownfield development in the district up to 2031 was now 1,800 dwellings (up from the 750 dwelling estimate of a year ago and compared to the 2,438 units estimated by WeHeartHart).
  1. How will the recent Government announcement extending permitted development rights indefinitely and allowing automatic planning permission in principle on brownfield sites impact your assessment of brownfield capacity?

To Stephen Parker

  1. Do you agree with our local MP who says: “I believe unused and redundant commercial buildings should be brought forward for regeneration before any more greenfield sites are allocated anywhere in NE Hampshire. That includes Grove Farm, Hop Garden, Winchfield, the Urnfield…I’m against these developments – indeed, this sort of large-scale top-down volume-led development generally – as I do not believe they are necessary to deliver the housing we need in our area. Looking at Hart District specifically for a moment, as the largest part of the constituency, I believe that the local housing demand can be met on brownfield sites”?
  1. What criteria would you use and how long would a brownfield site need to be vacant, with no sign of redevelopment before the council would consider using Compulsory Purchase Orders (CPOs) to ensure that we can build modern apartments for young professionals who can’t otherwise buy a home in our area?
  1. How many sites would meet those criteria and how many dwellings might they yield?
  1. Given that the baseline estimate of the number of households in Hart in 2011 and 2031 used in the SHMA was 35,760 and 42,220 respectively, but the new DCLG 2012-based household projections (Table 406) for 2031 show that Hart will have only 40,618 households, a reduction of 1,602, can you confirm that these revised figures will lead to a corresponding reduction in Hart’s assessed housing need?
  1. When will the 6,560 excess housing requirement for the whole HMA be removed from the assessed need in the SHMA given that the new DCLG 2012-based population projections (Table 426) show a population projection of only 289K for the HMA for 2031, compared to the SHMA (Appendix F, Figure 2)
Hart Rushmoor and Surrey Heath SHMA Appendix F Figure 2

Hart Rushmoor and Surrey Heath SHMA Appendix F Figure 2

starting assumption of 307K and the final population estimate of 322K used to determine housing need?

  1. What justification is there for assuming the significant social changes implied in the SHMA given that the SHMA increases the number of houses that need to be built based in part on very ambitious jobs forecasts which when combined with the population projections in the SHMA results in a massive increase in the proportion of people of working age who will be in employment (see table below)?

 

Data Point2011 (Census)2011 (BRES)2031 (PROJ 2)2031 (PROJ 5)
SHMA Population (a) 272,394 272,394 307,578 322,278
People in employment (b) 122,300 125,000 162,233 170,223
Overall % in employment (b/a)44.9%45.9%52.7%52.8%
People over 70 (c) 28,559 28,559 51,164 51,164
People 5-19 (d) 67,375 67,375 73,206 73,206
People of working age (a-c-d)=e 176,460 176,460 183,208 197,908
% working age in employment (b/e)69.3%70.8%88.6%86.0%

 

  1. What steps will be taken to adjust the jobs forecasts in the SHMA given that, a) the revised BRES job numbers for 2013 show that the compound annual growth rate in jobs we have achieved since the recession ended in 2009 is ~0.5% which is much lower than the ~0.8% growth rate assumed in the SHMA for the period 2011-2031, b) this comes at a time when the UK is creating more jobs than the rest of the EU put together and c) it is inevitable we will experience at least one more recession during the plan period?
Hart Surrey Heath and Rushmoor Jobs Growth rates 1998 to 2013 compared to SHMA

Hart, Surrey Heath and Rushmoor Jobs Growth rates 1998 to 2013 compared to SHMA

  1. What steps are being taken to accelerate the delivery of the Local Plan given that the recent Government announcement indicated that Local Plans need to be brought into force by 2017 and the current LDS shows the Local Plan being adopted in Summer 2017 and other DPD’s in Autumn 2018 and the track record of past slippage?

Housing allocation for Hart, Rushmoor and Surrey Heath should reduce by 6,560 according to new DCLG figures

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Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG)

Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG)

The housing allocation for the combined Housing Market Area (HMA) of Hart, Rushmoor and Surrey Heath should be reduced by by 27.7% or 6,560 houses, taking away the risk that Rushmoor and Surrey Heath will ask Hart to build 3,000 houses for them and ensuring Hart’s own requirement can be built on brownfield sites only according to new population projections that have been released by the DCLG.

Hart Rushmoor and Surrey Heath SHMA Appendix F Figure 2

Figure 1: Hart Rushmoor and Surrey Heath SHMA Appendix F

The SHMA worked by taking as a starting point earlier Government figures that showed the combined population of the HMA would be 307K (PROJ 2 circled in Figure 1 above) and this was inflated by increasing the assumptions on inward migration, average household size and jobs growth to arrive at a final figure of 322K (PROJ 5 circled in Figure 1 above).

Hart Rushmoor and Surrey Heath SHMA Appendix G Figure 1

Figure 2: Hart Rushmoor and Surrey Heath SHMA Appendix G

Interestingly, revised population forecasts were published by the Government as the SHMA was being finalised that showed that the start point population forecast should be reduced to 295K (circled in Figure 2 above), but amazingly these changes were not used to reduce the assessed housing need.  If they had been used, the total amount of housing that would be required for the HMA would have reduced by 208 per annum (see Figure 3 below), or a total of 4,160 dwellings out of a total objectively assessed housing need (OAHN) of 23,600.

Hart Rushmoor and Surrey Heath SHMA Appendix G Figure 2

Figure 3: Hart Rushmoor and Surrey Heath SHMA Appendix G

Now the latest DCLG figures (Table 426) have reduced the population forecast for 2031 for the whole HMA down to only 289K, a reduction of 6,000 people, which equates to a reduction of a further ~2,400 houses (@2.5 people per property).

Taken together these reductions in population forecasts would reduce the whole housing need for the HMA by 6,560 houses of the 23,600 or a reduction of a stunning 27.7%.

We wonder when Hart Council, Rushmoor and Surrey Heath councils will take these new figures into account in the Local Plan.