Tag Archives: Vale of the White Horse

Vale of the White Horse District Council Local Plan, Oxfordshire

If SHMA adjustments were applied nationally we would be building too many houses

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Hart Surrey Heath and Rushmoor SHMA adjustments applied at national level

Figure 1: Hart Surrey Heath and Rushmoor SHMA adjustments applied at national level

Evidence presented at the examination of the Vale of the White Horse Local Plan has demonstrated that if the adjustments made to the baseline DCLG housing projections were applied on a national basis, they would increase the national output of housing to double the DCLG estimate of what is needed and triple the recent output of housing.

Applying a similar approach to the Hart, Rushmoor and Surrey Heath SHMA shows that on a national basis, we would be delivering 54% more housing than we need on a national basis, see Figure 1 above.  Surely it cannot be right that we are being asked to build at a rate that would lead to a surplus of housing.

England housing delivery actuals and projected 1946-2031

Figure 2: England housing delivery actuals and projected 1946-2031

The baseline DCLG projections for the combination of Hart, Surrey Heath and Rushmoor call for 790 houses per annum (SHMA Figure 7.3).  This equates to the DCLG projection of 220,000 houses per annum nationally (see figure 2 above).  This compares to recent performance of around 150,000 houses per annum.

The final SHMA, after taking into account past under-delivery, amount to a total of 24,413 houses (see table below), or an increase of 54.6% over the DCLG baseline figures.  The duty to cooperate might mean that Hart District has to build more houses than either Surrey Heath or Rushmoor as part of our Local Plan.

Hart DistrictSurrey Heath BoroughRushmoor BoroughTotal Housing Market Area
Original SHMA7,5347,0579,82224,413
Proposed Transfers3,022(1,400)(1,622)0
New Total10,5565,6578,20024,413

If the same 54.6% uplift were applied to the DCLG projection, we would be building over 340,000 houses per annum nationally, more than double recent performance.

In recent years Hart has built more houses than it has been required to do and built at a rate above regional and national averages (SHMA Table 5.11).  It is beginning to look like the total of the local SHMAs are much larger than the overall requirement as defined by the DCLG. Surely it cannot be right that we are being asked to build at rate more than 50% higher than the DCLG suggests we need to meet overall demand.

Housing targets fantasy worthy of Lewis Carroll

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Sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast

Sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast

This week marks the start of the examination of the Vale of the White Horse District Council Local Plan, as reported in the Oxford Mail, and the housing targets have been branded “worthy of Lewis Carroll”.  It seems Hart District residents are also being asked to believe six impossible things before breakfast.

One of the key issues at White Horse is the credibility of the housing target because it is derived from some very questionable jobs forecasts.  Here is a quote from their article:

“The logic is very simple. The number of jobs which theoretically could be created between now and 2031 was calculated. They then used these figures to estimate how many houses would be needed if these jobs materialised. The problem is that if the jobs projection is fantasy, as many people think it is, then the “objectively assessed” housing number is also fantasy.

A company called GL Hearn was then commissioned by our district councils to estimate housing need, assuming that all of these forecast jobs will actually exist. This is the Oxfordshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment, or SHMA.

There are many who believe that this is a story worthy of Lewis Carroll himself.”

Comparison of Jobs Growth Rates for Housing Market Area

Comparison of Jobs Growth Rates for Housing Market Area

Of course this is a very similar situation to that in which we find our selves in Hart, Rushmoor and Surrey Heath, where the jobs forecasts in the SHMA assume a growth in jobs almost twice that we achieved in the period 1998-2012 and will lead to a massive increase in the proportion of working age people in employment.

Data Point2011 (Census)2011 (BRES)2031 (PROJ 2)2031 (PROJ 5)
SHMA Population (a) 272,394 272,394 307,578 322,278
People in employment (b) 122,300 125,000 162,233 170,223
Overall % in employment (b/a)44.9%45.9%52.7%52.8%
People over 70 (c) 28,559 28,559 51,164 51,164
People 5-19 (d) 67,375 67,375 73,206 73,206
People of working age (a-c-d)=e 176,460 176,460 183,208 197,908
% working age in employment (b/e)69.3%70.8%88.6%86.0%

The impact of this is that across the whole Housing Market Area, we are forced to build 5,100 extra houses and of course protect even more vacant employment land that could be allocated to housing.

It seems we are being asked to believe in six impossible things before breakfast, just like the Vale of White Horse.  It remains to be seen how the inspector will view the White Horse Housing Market Assessment.